AMZN Seasonality Through the Election Cycle
Amazon has traded on major exchanges since 1997, but only from 1998 onward is the series complete enough to build seasonality in this dataset — that still gives us a full 28-year sample broken down by the U.S. presidential election cycle.
Reading the chart
The "All Years" line shows the average cumulative path across all valid years. The election-cycle profiles break those same years into groups by year type:
- Election — year % 4 == 0
- Post-Election — year % 4 == 1
- Mid-Term — year % 4 == 2
- Pre-Election — year % 4 == 3
- Trump Presidency Years — the defined Trump-administration years (2016–2019, 2024–2025)
- 2026 YTD — the direct cumulative return of the current year, so far
Open the explorer page and toggle each profile to compare.
Seasonal chart
Snapshot
| Price | $258.75 |
| Historical data range | 1998 – 2025 (28 years) |
| Current year | 2026 |
Profiles
| Profile | Range | Years |
|---|---|---|
| All Years | 1998 – 2025 | all 28 |
| Pre-Election | 1999 – 2023 | 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019, 2023 |
| Election | 2000 – 2024 | 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024 |
| Post-Election | 2001 – 2025 | 2001, 2005, 2009, 2013, 2017, 2021, 2025 |
| Mid-Term | 1998 – 2022 | 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 |
| Trump Presidency Years | 2016 – 2025 | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2024, 2025 |
| 2026 YTD | 2026 | 2026 |
Monthly checkpoints
Cumulative % change from Jan 1, sampled at each month-end (the December row is day 364, one day short of year-end).
| Month | All Years | Pre-Election | Election | Post-Election | Mid-Term | Trump Presidency Years | 2026 YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 5.4% | 10.0% | -9.3% | 16.7% | 4.3% | 11.4% | — |
| Feb | 1.4% | 13.6% | -15.3% | 0.1% | 7.2% | 11.9% | — |
| Mar | 9.8% | 30.7% | -8.0% | 2.3% | 13.9% | 16.9% | -7.0% |
| Apr | 21.7% | 56.8% | 0.0% | 17.8% | 12.3% | 24.1% | 18.4% |
| May | 25.2% | 57.9% | 2.3% | 26.7% | 12.6% | 31.2% | 15.4% |
| Jun | 33.1% | 73.1% | 3.2% | 23.5% | 31.3% | 39.2% | 6.7% |
| Jul | 37.9% | 83.9% | -1.3% | 33.4% | 31.8% | 40.3% | — |
| Aug | 42.3% | 94.7% | 9.4% | 21.5% | 38.9% | 41.4% | — |
| Sep | 49.1% | 116.5% | 9.6% | 19.1% | 51.8% | 43.0% | — |
| Oct | 55.6% | 128.0% | -1.9% | 39.0% | 60.2% | 48.7% | — |
| Nov | 77.2% | 152.2% | -5.9% | 75.7% | 97.8% | 53.1% | — |
| Dec* | 78.4% | 149.1% | -5.8% | 73.8% | 97.5% | 54.6% | — |
Highlights
- 2026 is trailing its own historical pace. 2026 is a Mid-Term year, yet AMZN is up only about +6.7% year-to-date through the last confirmed data point (end of June), against the ~+33.1% the All-Years average typically shows by mid-year.
- Pre-Election years are the strongest seasonal tailwind, climbing steadily from January to about +149.1% by year-end.
- Election years are the seasonal laggard — mostly flat to slightly negative across the year and settling around -5.8% by December.
- Mid-Term and Post-Election years power the big back-halves, with Mid-Term averaging ~+97.5% and Post-Election ~+73.8% by year-end.
Caveats
This is historical statistics, not a forecast. AMZN has a long, stable history here (1998–2025), so the cycle averages carry less noise than a newer ticker — but recent years and the partial 2026 YTD column can shift fast. Trade the summary above with that in mind. Full daily data is available on the explorer page.
Historical statistics based on available market data. Not financial advice. Source: Yahoo Finance