QQQ Seasonality Through the Election Cycle
The Invesco QQQ Trust has tracked the Nasdaq-100 since early 1999, giving us 27 years of history to break down by the U.S. presidential election cycle.
Reading the chart
The "All Years" line shows the average cumulative path across all valid years. The election-cycle profiles break those same years into groups by year type:
- Election — year % 4 == 0
- Post-Election — year % 4 == 1
- Mid-Term — year % 4 == 2
- Pre-Election — year % 4 == 3
- Trump Presidency Years — the defined Trump-administration years (2016–2019, 2024–2025)
- 2026 YTD — the direct cumulative return of the current year, so far
Open the explorer page and toggle each profile to compare.
Seasonal chart
Snapshot
| Price | $716.76 |
| Historical data range | 1999 – 2025 (27 years) |
| Current year | 2026 |
Profiles
| Profile | Range | Years |
|---|---|---|
| All Years | 1999 – 2025 | all 27 |
| Pre-Election | 1999 – 2023 | 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019, 2023 |
| Election | 2000 – 2024 | 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024 |
| Post-Election | 2001 – 2025 | 2001, 2005, 2009, 2013, 2017, 2021, 2025 |
| Mid-Term | 2002 – 2022 | 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 |
| Trump Presidency Years | 2016 – 2025 | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2024, 2025 |
| 2026 YTD | 2026 | 2026 |
Monthly checkpoints
Cumulative % change from Jan 1, sampled at each month-end (the Dec row is day 364, one day short of year-end).
| Month | All Years | Post-Election | Mid-Term | Pre-Election | Election | Trump Presidency Years | 2026 YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 1.2% | 6.1% | -4.3% | 3.0% | -1.9% | 4.0% | — |
| Feb | 0.1% | -1.8% | -7.1% | 6.4% | 1.3% | 6.8% | — |
| Mar | 2.5% | -3.3% | -3.2% | 9.9% | 4.0% | 8.6% | -4.6% |
| Apr | 4.9% | 6.2% | -9.6% | 16.1% | 3.6% | 9.6% | 10.1% |
| May | 7.3% | 11.6% | -10.7% | 18.1% | 6.3% | 14.9% | 21.3% |
| Jun | 8.6% | 12.4% | -16.5% | 25.1% | 10.5% | 20.0% | 18.6% |
| Jul | 12.4% | 18.2% | -14.4% | 27.7% | 11.1% | 25.7% | — |
| Aug | 14.3% | 15.7% | -11.2% | 26.8% | 18.1% | 28.2% | — |
| Sep | 11.7% | 13.0% | -12.6% | 27.1% | 11.4% | 31.3% | — |
| Oct | 16.5% | 22.6% | -7.9% | 38.3% | 5.5% | 34.4% | — |
| Nov | 21.6% | 30.6% | -2.3% | 46.7% | 3.4% | 37.0% | — |
| Dec* | 23.6% | 33.6% | -8.9% | 55.8% | 4.4% | 38.7% | — |
Highlights
- Mid-Term years are QQQ's seasonal laggard by far, spending most of the year down double digits and finishing near -8.9% cumulatively — the only profile that ends the year in the red.
- Pre-Election years are the strongest tailwind, building through the year and finishing near +55.8% cumulative by year-end on average.
- Trump Presidency Years run very hot, tracking near the top of the pack all year and closing around +38.7%.
- 2026 opened trailing (QQQ sat near -4.6% at the end of March) before ripping higher into mid-year, reaching +18.6% cumulative by the end of June — the most recent confirmed 2026 data point.
Caveats
This is historical statistics, not a forecast. Averages smooth over individual outlier years — QQQ is a volatile index fund, and the 1999–2002 dot-com era and the 2008 crisis both sit inside this sample. Full daily data is available on the explorer page.
Historical statistics based on available market data. Not financial advice. Source: Yahoo Finance