AAPL Seasonality Through the Election Cycle
Apple has traded publicly since December 1980, giving us 45 years of history to break down by the U.S. presidential election cycle — one of the deepest samples in the curated list.
Reading the chart
The "All Years" line shows the average cumulative path across all valid years. The election-cycle profiles break those same years into groups by year type:
- Election — year % 4 == 0
- Post-Election — year % 4 == 1
- Mid-Term — year % 4 == 2
- Pre-Election — year % 4 == 3
- Trump Presidency Years — the defined Trump-administration years (2016–2019, 2024–2025)
- 2026 YTD — the direct cumulative return of the current year, so far
Open the explorer page and toggle each profile to compare.
Seasonal chart
Snapshot
| Price | $319.70 |
| Historical data range | 1981 – 2025 (45 years) |
| Current year | 2026 |
Profiles
| Profile | Range | Years |
|---|---|---|
| All Years | 1981 – 2025 | all 45 |
| Post-Election | 1981 – 2025 | 1981, 1985, 1989, 1993, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2009, 2013, 2017, 2021, 2025 |
| Mid-Term | 1982 – 2022 | 1982, 1986, 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 |
| Pre-Election | 1983 – 2023 | 1983, 1987, 1991, 1995, 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019, 2023 |
| Election | 1984 – 2024 | 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024 |
| Trump Presidency Years | 2016 – 2025 | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2024, 2025 |
| 2026 YTD | 2026 | 2026 |
Monthly checkpoints
Cumulative % change from Jan 1, sampled at each month-end (the Dec row is day 364, one day short of year-end).
| Month | All Years | Post-Election | Mid-Term | Pre-Election | Election | Trump Presidency Years | 2026 YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 3.3% | 2.4% | -0.1% | 16.3% | -5.8% | -2.9% | — |
| Feb | 5.5% | -1.6% | 3.1% | 23.1% | -2.7% | 3.3% | — |
| Mar | 9.8% | -0.1% | 10.9% | 27.5% | 1.3% | 6.2% | -5.6% |
| Apr | 16.0% | 7.3% | 11.9% | 39.9% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% |
| May | 19.9% | 11.0% | 12.8% | 50.6% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 13.2% |
| Jun | 15.8% | -0.4% | 6.4% | 54.3% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 8.8% |
| Jul | 21.6% | 3.0% | 16.6% | 62.1% | 13.2% | 19.3% | — |
| Aug | 31.0% | 8.8% | 25.4% | 75.2% | 23.9% | 30.1% | — |
| Sep | 23.2% | 4.2% | 23.4% | 64.7% | 7.3% | 37.1% | — |
| Oct | 34.7% | 19.9% | 42.3% | 76.2% | 7.4% | 46.1% | — |
| Nov | 41.6% | 31.0% | 48.9% | 81.1% | 12.8% | 45.7% | — |
| Dec* | 44.8% | 29.5% | 48.0% | 94.3% | 15.8% | 48.5% | — |
Highlights
- 2026 is trailing the historical pace. The last confirmed 2026 data point (late August) puts AAPL up about +18.3% year-to-date, well below the ~31% average cumulative gain "All Years" typically shows by that point.
- Pre-Election years are the strongest seasonal tailwind by far, building a lead early and finishing near +94% cumulative by year-end on average.
- Election years are the seasonal laggard, spending most of the year in single digits and finishing around +16% — the weakest of all profiles.
- Post-Election years accelerate late, sitting near flat through mid-year before jumping to +31% by November.
Caveats
This is historical statistics, not a forecast. Averages smooth over individual outlier years, so trade the summary above with that in mind. Full daily data is available on the explorer page.
Historical statistics based on available market data. Not financial advice. Source: Yahoo Finance