Best Stocks for Q4 2026 by A Historical Seasonality Screen Across Easeason Universe
October through December is the strongest quarter of the average U.S. stock year — the Q4 window quietly contributes nearly half of SPY's average annual gain. This article screens the entire S&P 500 portion of the Easeason universe to find which names have the most reliable, repeatable Q4, while paying special attention to 2026's status as a mid-term election year (2026 % 4 == 2).
Methodology
Every profile on Easeason is built the same way: take each stock's daily returns since 1971, average the daily return by day-of-year, then compound the average into a cumulative path ("Hirsch-style" seasonal profile). That path is produced separately for every phase of the 4-year U.S. presidential cycle:
- All Years — the long-run average path
- Election — year % 4 == 0
- Post-Election — year % 4 == 1
- Mid-Term — year % 4 == 2
- Pre-Election — year % 4 == 3
- Trump Presidency Years — defined Trump-era years
For this screen, Q4 = day-of-year 274 → 365/366 (October 1 through the last trading day of December). Q4 return is computed as cumulative factor at year-end ÷ factor just before Oct 1 − 1, so it isolates what happens October–December regardless of where the stock entered the quarter.
Because 2026 is a mid-term year, the Mid-Term profile is the single most relevant frame for Q4 2026. The strongest candidates should be good on the long-run average and in mid-term years, not just one or the other.
The screen
Universe: 529 S&P 500 members of Easeason with seasonal data (crypto, broad indices, and Jakarta Index stocks excluded; 14 symbols had no usable history and were dropped).
The base screen requires:
| Criterion | Threshold |
|---|---|
| Sample size | ≥ 20 years of history |
| All-years Q4 return | ≥ +8% on average |
| Mid-term Q4 return | ≥ 0% on average |
| Consistency | Q4 positive in all 6 profiles (min > 0) |
214 of 529 stocks pass. Then a quality tier splits the passers.
Tier 1 — The core Q4 franchise (10 names, n ≥ 25, Q4 ≥ +15% in both all-years and mid-term, and never below +10% in any profile)
These are the cleanest Q4 seasonality profiles in the universe: solidly positive in every election-cycle phase, long histories, and upside concentrated in October–December.
| Symbol | Name | All-Yrs Q4 | Mid-Term Q4 | Weakest profile (min) | Oct / Nov / Dec | Avg full year | Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIEN | Ciena | +32.2% | +45.1% | +17.8% | 7.2 / 11.3 / 10.8 | +43% | 29 |
| CPRT | Copart | +26.8% | +22.6% | +10.0% | 5.2 / 9.1 / 10.5 | +46% | 32 |
| SCHW | Charles Schwab | +25.7% | +30.2% | +17.1% | 8.3 / 7.4 / 8.1 | +53% | 38 |
| ON | ON Semiconductor | +24.0% | +23.5% | +10.5% | −0.8 / 15.1 / 8.5 | +50% | 25 |
| LRCX | Lam Research | +21.4% | +27.5% | +13.8% | 7.9 / 9.0 / 3.3 | +60% | 41 |
| ROK | Rockwell Automation | +20.6% | +18.9% | +14.4% | 3.0 / 9.4 / 7.0 | +36% | 44 |
| JBHT | J.B. Hunt | +17.9% | +15.4% | +10.5% | 4.8 / 5.6 / 6.5 | +32% | 42 |
| DE | Deere | +17.8% | +17.7% | +13.0% | 1.9 / 9.1 / 6.0 | +30% | 53 |
| COHR | Coherent | +17.5% | +16.5% | +15.0% | 5.3 / 7.8 / 3.5 | +65% | 38 |
| TER | Teradyne | +17.1% | +20.9% | +12.4% | 1.4 / 6.7 / 8.3 | +40% | 53 |
The pattern across the tier is a November-centered push: most names do the heavy lifting between Halloween and Thanksgiving, with a December follow-through. ON is the cleanest pure later-quarter play (flat October, then +15.1% November). CIEN is the standout on both scale and stability — it has historically returned about 75% of its entire average year inside Q4. SCHW and CPRT are the diversified operators.
Tier 2 — Strong Q4, tested across the cycle (34 names, long-run Q4 ≥ +20%)
Names here also clear all six profiles (Q4 positive in every cycle phase, n ≥ 20) but with a lower floor than Tier 1. The full list: NVR, HUBB, CIEN, NVDA, NTAP, AXON, CTSH, TPR, CPRT, SCHW, ASML, IVZ, ON, MRVL, CSCO, MS, FFIV, WDC, URI, STLD, CDNS, KLAC, CBRE, LRCX, MTD, RCL, BIIB, ICE, TSM, NDAQ, FICO, NUE, ROK, JKHY.
Notable members of the tier:
| Symbol | Name | All-Yrs Q4 | Mid-Term Q4 | Weakest (min) | Oct / Nov / Dec | Avg full year | Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA | +31.2% | +15.6% | +4.3% | 8.3 / 16.6 / 3.9 | +91% | 27 |
| NTAP | NetApp | +30.8% | +19.6% | +2.8% | 8.8 / 9.7 / 9.6 | +55% | 30 |
| AXON | Axon Enterprise | +30.6% | +16.8% | +3.0% | 10.4 / 12.3 / 5.3 | +86% | 24 |
| TPR | Tapestry | +26.9% | +19.0% | +8.1% | 6.8 / 13.7 / 4.6 | +47% | 25 |
| ASML | ASML | +25.6% | +43.0% | +1.6% | 9.4 / 9.3 / 5.0 | +61% | 31 |
| KLAC | KLA | +21.9% | +36.5% | +5.8% | 4.2 / 7.0 / 9.3 | +54% | 45 |
| CSCO | Cisco | +22.9% | +37.2% | +5.5% | 6.8 / 10.5 / 4.2 | +51% | 36 |
| CDNS | Cadence Design | +21.9% | +21.3% | +2.3% | 5.2 / 7.8 / 7.5 | +46% | 38 |
| MS | Morgan Stanley | +22.5% | +21.3% | +8.9% | 9.1 / 5.8 / 6.2 | +39% | 33 |
| TSM | TSMC | +20.9% | +17.3% | +6.6% | 8.7 / 7.2 / 3.8 | +46% | 28 |
Semiconductors over-index in and around this tier — NVDA, ASML, KLAC, CSCO, CDNS, TSM, LRCX, ON, TER all show a meaningful Q4 seasonal (with ON and TER proving especially robust in Tier 1). NVDA's November (+16.6%) is the single strongest month in the entire screen.
Outlier caution — big averages, fragile floors
A few names post enormous Q4 averages that are concentrated in a small number of years, so they did not make the quality tiers:
| Symbol | All-Yrs Q4 | Mid-Term Q4 | Weakest (min) | Oct / Nov / Dec | Caution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVR | +112.8% | +16.3% | +0.4% | 87.6 / 5.9 / 7.1 | +87.6% average October is a few spectacular years; floor near zero |
| HUBB | +34.2% | +91.3% | +6.4% | 26.1 / 3.0 / 3.3 | Mid-term Q4 (+91%) is an extreme tail; other profiles single-digit |
| UAL | +33.1% | +36.6% | −5.4% | 12.2 / 13.2 / 4.8 | Positive overall but loses money in some cycle phases |
| INCY | +32.1% | +53.6% | −10.0% | 3.6 / 11.4 / 14.5 | Strong December, but negative in pre-election Q4 |
NVR's +112.8% all-years Q4 matches the folklore of it being a monster seasonal — but a chunk of that is specific historical shocks crammed into the average. For a screen that wants repeatability, it is a show, not a signal.
December and the Santa-Claus window
For tactical exposure to December specifically (votes overlapping the track of a Santa Claus rally):
| Symbol | Name | Dec Q4 | All-Yrs Q4 | Weakest (min) | Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INCY | Incyte | +14.5% | +32.1% | −10.0% | 32 |
| WDC | Western Digital | +11.2% | +22.2% | +2.6% | 47 |
| CIEN | Ciena | +10.8% | +32.2% | +17.8% | 29 |
| CPRT | Copart | +10.5% | +26.8% | +10.0% | 32 |
| KLAC | KLA | +9.3% | +21.9% | +5.8% | 45 |
| IVZ | Invesco | +8.9% | +25.1% | +5.8% | 30 |
| NTAP | NetApp | +9.6% | +30.8% | +2.8% | 30 |
| ON | ON Semi | +8.5% | +24.0% | +10.5% | 25 |
| TER | Teradyne | +8.3% | +17.1% | +12.4% | 53 |
| AES | AES | +10.1% | +20.0% | −4.1% | 34 |
The Tier 1 names show up again — CIEN, CPRT, KLAC, NTAP, ON, TER are strong in December and robust across the cycle, which is the rarest combination in this screen.
2026 is a mid-term year — what the data says
The mid-term profile (1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022) is the reference frame for the rest of 2026. On average, across stocks with ≥ 20 years of data, mid-term Q4 returns ran +10.9% at the median, with 95% of names positive. That is basically in line with the long-run Q4 average — mid-term Q4 isn't the strongest, but it is firmly green, unlike mid-term summers, which have historically been weak.
The screen therefore leans on names that are strong in mid-term years specifically. The top of that cross-section:
| Symbol | Mid-Term Q4 | All-Yrs Q4 | Weakest (min) |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIEN | +45.1% | +32.2% | +17.8% |
| ASML | +43.0% | +25.6% | +1.6% |
| CSCO | +37.2% | +22.9% | +5.5% |
| KLAC | +36.5% | +21.9% | +5.8% |
| FICO | +33.2% | +20.8% | +6.1% |
| SCHW | +30.2% | +25.7% | +17.1% |
| MTD | +31.7% | +21.4% | +1.8% |
| PHM | +31.8% | +21.1% | −3.3% |
Avoid list — negative average Q4 in mid-term years (2026 frame)
These names are Q4-positive on the long-run average but historically lose money in mid-term-year Q4s — the direct opposite of the 2026 setup (n ≥ 20):
| Symbol | Name | Mid-Term Q4 | All-Yrs Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|
| DVN | Devon Energy | −13.4% | +2.9% |
| WBD | Warner Bros. Discovery | −11.1% | +12.8% |
| EQIX | Equinix | −8.1% | +25.6% |
| EOG | EOG Resources | −6.7% | +7.0% |
| AIZ | Assurant | −6.5% | +8.9% |
| APA | APA | −6.1% | +3.1% |
| TKO | TKO Group | −5.4% | +8.6% |
| TPL | Texas Pacific Land | −4.3% | +3.0% |
| OXY | Occidental | −4.1% | +2.9% |
| NFLX | Netflix | −2.7% | +19.0% |
The energy complex is striking here: DVN, EOG, APA, OXY all trend the wrong way in mid-term Q4s despite being fine on the long-run average.
How the picks compare to the index
| SPY | QQQ | CIEN | SCHW | LRCX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All-Years Q4 | +9.3% | +11.2% | +32.2% | +25.7% | +21.4% |
| Mid-Term Q4 | +8.8% | +5.1% | +45.1% | +30.2% | +27.5% |
| Weakest profile (min) | +3.9% | −5.0% | +17.8% | +17.1% | +13.8% |
| Q4 share of avg year | 47% | 48% | 75% | 49% | 36% |
The market itself compounds roughly half its average year into Q4. The screen's Tier 1 names do the same thing with a much higher floor — every profile, every cycle phase, positive.
Caveats
- Averages, not guarantees. All profile values are compounded average daily returns. A handful of exceptional years can inflate a path (see NVR, HUBB).
- Survivorship. The 529 names that made the screen are current S&P 500 constituents; delisted or renamed members are excluded, which can flatter historical averages.
- Not a forecast. "Mid-term seasons have averaged green" is a statement about history, not a prediction. 2026's own path could diverge sharply.
- Sector regime risk. The screen is dominated by semis and industrials; a drawdown in that complex would hit most of the Tier 1 list at once.
- Full history for any ticker is one click away on each explorer page.
Historical statistics based on Easeason seasonal profiles (source: Yahoo Finance, adjusted closes since 1971). Not financial advice.