SPY

All Years

Average seasonal path across every valid historical year.

Full Seasons

Average four-year path from an election year through the following three seasons.

1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

Post-Election

Average path across years after a presidential election (year % 4 == 1).

1993, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2009, 2013, 2017, 2021, 2025

Mid-Term

Average path across mid-term years (year % 4 == 2).

1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022

Pre-Election

Average path across years before a presidential election (year % 4 == 3).

1995, 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019, 2023

Election

Average path across U.S. presidential election years (year % 4 == 0).

1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024

Trump Presidency Years

Average path across the defined Trump-administration years.

2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2024, 2025

2026 YTD

Direct cumulative return of the current year to date.

2026