NVDA Seasonality Through the Election Cycle
NVIDIA has one of the shortest public trading histories in the curated list, having listed in January 1999. That still gives us a rich 27-year sample to break down by the U.S. presidential election cycle.
Because of this, its seasonality is built from fewer years than older assets. That is fine — easeason uses whatever valid historical years are available and labels the range accordingly.
Reading the chart
The "All Years" line shows the average cumulative path across all valid years. The election-cycle profiles break those same years into groups by year type:
- Election — year % 4 == 0
- Post-Election — year % 4 == 1
- Mid-Term — year % 4 == 2
- Pre-Election — year % 4 == 3
- Trump Presidency Years — the defined Trump-administration years (2016–2019, 2024–2025)
- 2026 YTD — the direct cumulative return of the current year, so far
Open the explorer page and toggle each profile to compare.
Seasonal chart
Snapshot
| Price | $227.98 |
| Historical data range | 1999 – 2025 (27 years) |
| Current year | 2026 |
Profiles
| Profile | Range | Years |
|---|---|---|
| All Years | 1999 – 2025 | all 27 |
| Pre-Election | 1999 – 2023 | 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019, 2023 |
| Election | 2000 – 2024 | 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024 |
| Post-Election | 2001 – 2025 | 2001, 2005, 2009, 2013, 2017, 2021, 2025 |
| Mid-Term | 2002 – 2022 | 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 |
| Trump Presidency Years | 2016 – 2025 | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2024, 2025 |
| 2026 YTD | 2026 | 2026 |
Monthly checkpoints
Cumulative % change from Jan 1, sampled at each month-end (the last two December rows are day 364, one day short of year-end).
| Month | All Years | Pre-Election | Election | Post-Election | Mid-Term | Trump Presidency Years | 2026 YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 4.5% | 8.2% | -7.5% | 16.2% | -0.4% | 6.2% | — |
| Feb | 16.9% | 26.2% | 13.2% | 23.6% | -0.2% | 18.3% | — |
| Mar | 27.0% | 27.4% | 35.3% | 33.4% | 4.3% | 28.9% | -6.9% |
| Apr | 29.6% | 37.9% | 30.5% | 52.2% | -8.3% | 27.2% | 5.1% |
| May | 50.2% | 62.2% | 71.8% | 81.3% | -13.0% | 57.0% | 18.8% |
| Jun | 45.6% | 67.5% | 75.1% | 96.5% | -35.4% | 72.2% | 4.8% |
| Jul | 35.1% | 67.4% | 55.7% | 111.6% | -40.0% | 99.3% | — |
| Aug | 49.1% | 83.4% | 77.7% | 128.9% | -36.3% | 111.6% | — |
| Sep | 46.0% | 73.1% | 81.0% | 116.6% | -35.4% | 132.1% | — |
| Oct | 60.7% | 99.2% | 65.8% | 160.5% | -27.0% | 148.1% | — |
| Nov | 83.3% | 146.4% | 73.6% | 186.8% | -14.8% | 150.5% | — |
| Dec* | 90.8% | 172.5% | 83.6% | 222.9% | -26.3% | 157.9% | — |
Highlights
- 2026 is trailing the historical pace. The last confirmed 2026 data point (late August) puts NVDA up about +20.9% year-to-date, well below the ~50% average cumulative gain "All Years" typically shows by that point.
- Post-Election years are the strongest seasonal tailwind by far, building a large lead by mid-year and finishing near +223% cumulative by year-end on average.
- Mid-Term years are the seasonal laggard, spending most of the year underwater and bottoming around -40% in July before recovering somewhat into year-end.
- Election years accelerate hardest in Q1–Q2, jumping from roughly flat in January to +70% by May, then holding that range through year-end.
Caveats
This is historical statistics, not a forecast. Short histories compound fewer observations, so the averages carry more noise — trade the summary above with that in mind. Full daily data is available on the explorer page.
Historical statistics based on available market data. Not financial advice. Source: Yahoo Finance