SPY Seasonality Through the Election Cycle
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust has tracked the S&P 500 since early 1993, giving us 33 years of history to break down by the U.S. presidential election cycle.
Reading the chart
The "All Years" line shows the average cumulative path across all valid years. The election-cycle profiles break those same years into groups by year type:
- Election — year % 4 == 0
- Post-Election — year % 4 == 1
- Mid-Term — year % 4 == 2
- Pre-Election — year % 4 == 3
- Trump Presidency Years — the defined Trump-administration years (2016–2019, 2024–2025)
- 2026 YTD — the direct cumulative return of the current year, so far
Open the explorer page and toggle each profile to compare.
Seasonal chart
Snapshot
| Price | $767.05 |
| Historical data range | 1993 – 2025 (33 years) |
| Current year | 2026 |
Profiles
| Profile | Range | Years |
|---|---|---|
| All Years | 1993 – 2025 | all 33 |
| Post-Election | 1993 – 2025 | 1993, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2009, 2013, 2017, 2021, 2025 |
| Mid-Term | 1994 – 2022 | 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 |
| Pre-Election | 1995 – 2023 | 1995, 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019, 2023 |
| Election | 1996 – 2024 | 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024 |
| Trump Presidency Years | 2016 – 2025 | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2024, 2025 |
| 2026 YTD | 2026 | 2026 |
Monthly checkpoints
Cumulative % change from Jan 1, sampled at each month-end (the Dec row is day 364, one day short of year-end).
| Month | All Years | Post-Election | Mid-Term | Pre-Election | Election | Trump Presidency Years | 2026 YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 0.7% | 1.7% | -1.3% | 2.0% | -1.2% | 3.1% | — |
| Feb | 0.6% | -0.8% | -0.7% | 3.4% | -1.1% | 5.9% | — |
| Mar | 2.8% | -0.4% | 2.1% | 6.7% | 1.2% | 7.5% | -3.8% |
| Apr | 5.2% | 3.7% | 0.6% | 11.9% | 2.6% | 7.7% | 5.8% |
| May | 7.2% | 9.5% | -0.7% | 12.5% | 4.8% | 10.9% | 11.3% |
| Jun | 8.0% | 10.5% | -3.5% | 17.2% | 6.3% | 16.3% | 9.7% |
| Jul | 10.2% | 15.2% | -2.0% | 16.7% | 6.6% | 19.6% | — |
| Aug | 10.7% | 14.1% | -1.5% | 14.7% | 11.0% | 21.7% | — |
| Sep | 10.1% | 15.4% | -3.8% | 14.3% | 9.3% | 24.3% | — |
| Oct | 12.7% | 18.0% | 1.5% | 19.9% | 6.8% | 25.3% | — |
| Nov | 17.5% | 22.9% | 5.5% | 24.9% | 11.5% | 30.4% | — |
| Dec* | 19.7% | 26.0% | 4.4% | 28.4% | 12.3% | 30.9% | — |
Highlights
- Mid-Term years dip in the middle. SPY turns negative through the spring and summer (bottoming near -3.8% at end of September) before recovering to finish around +4.4% — the weakest profile, but still green.
- Pre-Election years are the strongest tailwind, steadily climbing toward a +28.4% cumulative finish on average.
- Trump Presidency Years run hottest, holding near the top of the pack all year and closing around +30.9%.
- 2026 opened weak (SPY down to -3.8% at the end of March) before a sharp recovery through spring, hitting +9.7% cumulative by the end of June — the most recent confirmed 2026 data point.
Caveats
This is historical statistics, not a forecast. Averages smooth over individual outlier years — both the 2000–02 bear market and the 2008 crash sit inside this sample, and mid-term years in particular can swing widely. Full daily data is available on the explorer page.
Historical statistics based on available market data. Not financial advice. Source: Yahoo Finance